IMRAN KHAN WAS FORCED TO LEAVE THE Prime Minister’s office, literally kicking and screaming. In his efforts to cling to office, he had trampled on established parliamentary and constitutional norms. He prevailed on the Deputy Speaker to disallow the no-confidence motion by a united opposition when it was first moved in the Pakistan National Assembly on April 3. The Deputy Speaker followed orders and disallowed the vote. Then the Prime Minister persuaded the President to dissolve the National Assembly and order fresh elections.
The Pakistan Supreme Court, which had on previous occasions legitimised military coups and the overthrow of elected civilian governments, unanimously ruled after due deliberations that the Imran Khan government should face a no-confidence motion in Parliament. Imran Khan tried to pull off a constitutional coup but the court’s timely ruling helped avert a political crisis.
Immediately after his government lost its majority on the floor of the House, Imran Khan vowed not to recognise the new government headed by the main opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which was sworn in in the second week of April. About 100 legislators belonging to Imran Khan’s Tehreek-i-Pakistan (PTI) resigned from the National Assembly following his diktat. Imran Khan has taken to the streets and is ominously drawing large crowds. His claim that his government’s independent foreign policy was the reason for the so-called conspiracy to remove him found resonance with the people. He is blaming the United States. Unlike India, Pakistan has been vehemently anti-American since the George Bush administration launched its “war on terror” in 2001 and arm-twisted the Pakistan government into supporting its invasion of Afghanistan.
By the middle of March, it was quite evident that Imran Khan’s government was on its way out. From the very beginning, its survival was dependent on support from small parties such as the Karachi-based Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM-P) and the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP). Many MPs and office bearers started leaving the PTI in droves. It was, however, the lack of support from the influential military establishment that proved critical for the PTI government. Once that support evaporated, it was evident that the government’s days were numbered. Also read: Shehbaz Sharif sworn in as new Pakistan prime minister
As is well known, no civilian government in Pakistan has been able to complete its full term in office. But this is the first time that a civilian government has been voted out of office. On previous occasions, it was either through direct military intervention or through military-influenced judicial decisions that governments were unceremoniously turfed out of office. Many Pakistani political commentators are of the view that this time too it was the military establishment’s behind-the-scenes role that cooked Imran Khan’s political goose. During Imran Khan’s four years in office, the opposition had lampooned him often as a “selected” Prime Minister, not an elected one.
Military’s role
Pakistan’s security establishment had played an important role in ensuring that the PTI emerged as the single largest party in the last general election. The Army top brass and the Pakistan Muslim League led by Nawaz Sharif were daggers drawn at the time. Nawaz Sharif had openly questioned the extraconstitutional role the Army was playing in the running of the country. In 2017, the Pakistan Supreme Court ruled that Nawaz Sharif was guilty of corruption after his name figured in the “Panama Papers” expose. The Supreme Court barred Nawaz Sharif from holding any elective post for a period of 10 years. It was the third time that Nawaz Sharif had to leave the office of Prime Minister without completing his full term.
Although the military used its influence to ensure that the PTI emerged on top in the 2018 election, a Prime Minister being in power for three and a half years is a long time in Pakistan politics. Imran Khan, the military establishment’s erstwhile blue-eyed boy, started questioning the military’s role in the politics of the country. Nawaz Sharif had entered politics as a protege of the military dictator, General Zia ul Haq. Imran Khan, during his early days in politics, was a staunch critic of the military government led by Gen. Pervez Musharraf.
During the first two years of his premiership, Imran Khan appeared to be playing ball with the military establishment. But fissures between them started appearing in the public domain last year. When the military establishment signalled that it was reverting to its position of neutrality, support for the PTI inside Parliament and the State legislatures started eroding. The tensions between the civilian government and the military became visible in October last year when Imran Khan tried to extend the tenure of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief, Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, who was credited with playing a key role in the electoral victory of Imran Khan in 2018. The Army chief, Gen. Qamar Bajwa, nominated Lt. Gen. Nadeem Anjum to succeed Hameed.
Standoff between Imran and Army
The standoff between Imran Khan and the military establishment over the issue lasted several weeks with Bajwa finally having his way. Bajwa’s term is coming to an end in November. Hameed is among the senior-most generals eligible for the post of Army chief. On paper, it is the Prime Minister’s prerogative to appoint the Army chief. If Imran Khan had continued in office, it is believed, Hameed would have been the front-runner for the job. Reports in the Pakistani media state that some sections of the military, especially younger officers, support the religion-tinged populist political posturing adopted by Imran Khan.
According to political commentators, the final break between Imran Khan and the Army top brass took place after the Prime Minister alleged that the U.S. had a role in the plot to oust him. The Army spokesman dismissed Imran Khan’s accusations. Speaking to the media a week after the removal of the PTI government, the spokesman rejected Imran Khan’s claim that the National Security Council had endorsed his conspiracy theories. Also read: Why Pakistan’s political crisis goes beyond early elections
The spokesman also denied that Bajwa had offered to mediate between the government and the opposition to break the political impasse in the National Assembly. Instead, he said that it was Imran Khan who had requested Bajwa to convey to the opposition that if it withdrew the no-confidence motion, he would immediately call for fresh elections. The military official said that Bajwa had conveyed the proposal to the opposition but it rejected the offer. The Army spokesman claimed that the U.S. had not asked for any military bases in the country after the Taliban took over Afghanistan. Although there may not have been any formal requests, it was reported in the Western media that the Joe Biden administration had requested access to Pakistani bases near the Afghan border, after the fall of Kabul.
Recipient of U.S.’ military largesse
The Pakistan Army wants to continue the cordial relations with the U.S. Much of the military’s weaponry is of American origin. Until a decade and a half ago, Pakistan was one of the largest recipients of military largesse from the U.S. The Donald Trump administration had suspended $2 billion in military aid to Pakistan over accusations that the Army continued to nurture anti-India militants. Pakistan’s military help was crucial for the overthrow of the Taliban regime in 2001. The Pakistani security services had a big role in the creation of the Taliban and its initial rise to power in Afghanistan in the mid-1990s. The military establishment claimed that the country had gained more “strategic depth” with the Taliban in power in Afghanistan,
After the Pakistan Army resumed its covert support for the Taliban resistance in the last decade, relations between Islamabad and Washington started to sour again. Pakistan was used as a base to launch drone and missile attacks on Taliban targets inside Afghanistan during the Bush and Barack Obama administrations. American strategic priorities in the region have also changed since the turn of the century. India is now the U.S.’ preferred ally in the region. The U.S. political establishment feels that a major factor that contributed to its defeat in Afghanistan was the double dealing by the Pakistan security establishment. Pakistan, on the other hand, feels that the rise of the Pakistan Taliban, which today poses a grave threat to its security, was a result of its support for the U.S. misadventure in Afghanistan.
Avowed opponent of U.S. policies
Imran Khan, throughout his career in politics, was an avowed opponent of U.S. policies in Afghanistan and the region. He had criticised the U.S. for militarising bilateral ties with Pakistan and repeatedly called for Pakistan to pursue an independent foreign policy. Imran Khan’s government had tried to distance itself from the U.S., seeking closer ties with China and improving relations with Russia. However, the U.S. remains an important partner for Pakistan, especially in terms of security cooperation. Imran Khan’s allegations of U.S. involvement in his ouster are indicative of the tense relationship between the two countries.