Although the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged victoriously in Goa, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) can be considered the true winner in the state. In the 2022 election, the AAP gained two significant seats, marking their first success since not winning any seats in 2017. The Revolutionary Goans Party (RGP), a relatively unknown party, also secured one seat. Even small successes are important in a state with just 40 Assembly constituencies. However, the regional parties that historically played a crucial role in deciding the winner were completely sidelined in this election.
The downfall of the Congress can be attributed to poor management of party affairs, a weak strategy, and vote splitting due to new entrants in the election. Election analysts were predicting a hung Assembly until the results were declared on March 10th. The prediction was based on the race narrowing down to the two national parties, surpassing the regional and new players. The strong anti-incumbency sentiment and defection drama suggested a desire for change among the voters.
The BJP has now secured its third successive term in Goa, winning 20 seats, just one seat short of a majority. The Congress won 11 seats, the AAP 2, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) 2, the Goa Forward Party (GFP) 1, and the RGP 1. Additionally, three seats went to independent candidates. The BJP gained seven seats compared to the 2017 election, while the Congress lost six seats. The BJP received support from the three independent MLAs and the MGP, although the alliance with the MGP may face complications due to their pre-poll alliance with the Trinamool Congress.
Chief Minister Pramod Sawant, who took over after the passing of popular Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar, played a significant role in the BJP’s success. Sawant’s approachable and humble demeanor endeared him to the people of Goa. However, State Health Minister Vishwajit Rane, a seven-time MLA and son of former Chief Minister Pratap Singh Rane, posed a challenge to Sawant’s position as a chief ministerial candidate. Rane won the Valpoi seat with a significant margin, while Sawant barely scraped through with a narrow victory.
In the 2017 election, the Congress won 17 seats compared to the BJP’s 13. However, the BJP quickly formed a coalition to secure the majority after the results. Learning from their past mistakes, the Congress took precautions ahead of the 2022 election by ensuring the safety of their contenders and exploring the possibility of alliances with regional parties, the AAP, and the Trinamool Congress. However, the lack of a united front and fragmented opposition played a significant role in the BJP’s victory.
Despite the BJP’s win, political commentators believe that the result was more of a consequence of the opposition’s fragmentation rather than a result of the BJP’s strategy. The party’s victory was attributed to co-opting independent candidates, which was an easy task. Moving forward, the BJP will need to address concerns about employment and the economy, specifically in the tourism and mining sectors in order to maintain their support. Whereas, the Congress gracefully accepted their defeat, acknowledging the split in votes among various parties as the reason for their lower numbers. Strong candidates like Michael Lobo and Claude Alvares helped the party to maintain a presence in the state.