Two South Asian nations are currently facing challenging times. Sri Lanka is dealing with an unprecedented economic crisis that has led to a severe political crisis, causing the once strong economy to falter. Meanwhile, in Pakistan, political chaos has ensued after the removal of Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was unable to complete a full term, a common occurrence since the country gained independence in 1947. These crises, although caused by different factors, raise concerns about the future stability of democracy and economy in the subcontinent, especially in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic.
Imran Khan’s failure in politics and his shift away from Western alliances ultimately sealed his fate as a cricket star-turned-politician. On the other hand, the crisis in Sri Lanka was triggered by the ruling family’s unwise policies and disregard for the people’s plight. These developments have led some politicians and analysts in Bangladesh to contemplate the future of their own country. However, Bangladesh has managed its economy and social sectors well, with no significant signs of political instability. Despite opposition parties raising concerns, it remains uncertain if these examples indicate any destabilization in Bangladesh.
In comparison to Pakistan, where democracy has struggled to gain a foothold due to constant military interference, Bangladesh has made significant progress. Bangladesh has witnessed military regimes in the past that shattered democratic principles and the secular spirit of national independence. However, the situation in Bangladesh today is far from the reality of Pakistan. Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina enjoys a substantial majority in parliament, making it difficult for the opposition to challenge her authority. Furthermore, the Bangladeshi army has evolved into a disciplined and professional force that upholds the country’s constitution and democracy, thanks to strict provisions discouraging military adventurism. Hence, it is unlikely that Bangladesh would follow the same path as Pakistan.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition party, foresees a crisis similar to that in Sri Lanka. Led by Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, the BNP alleges corruption and greed among traders loyal to the government, resulting in increased commodity prices. Although prices have risen, significant political unrest has not yet emerged. Sheikh Hasina has dismissed concerns of a Sri Lanka-like scenario, asserting that Bangladesh’s economy is strong and resilient, and the government remains vigilant. Economists also believe that fears of an economic collapse in Bangladesh are unfounded. Despite the pandemic, the country’s remittance earnings and exports continue to grow, and inflation remains below 6%. Bangladesh has also transitioned from a least developed country to a developing country, showcasing its economic progress.
Nevertheless, some analysts suggest that Bangladesh can learn valuable lessons from Sri Lanka’s economic downfall. While Bangladesh has a strong agricultural sector and is self-sufficient in food, some skepticism surrounds mega projects that require considerable investment. Although smaller projects have generated positive social and economic outcomes, concerns persist regarding the management of large-scale projects. Nonetheless, experts believe that Bangladesh’s mega projects are necessary and will yield positive results, driving investment, employment, and GDP growth.
Despite fears, experts argue that Bangladesh’s economy is in a favorable position. They emphasize that Bangladesh’s per capita debt is significantly lower than Sri Lanka’s, and indicators of economic reserves remain positive. Therefore, concerns of Bangladesh following the same path as Sri Lanka are unwarranted.